It took me 3 weeks to write this because there is so much on my mind.
The pandemic is not over as I write this. It doesn't seem like it will be over for a while. Hope it ends soon. But I have some questions for the next decade after we see through this pandemic. This could've been a much longer post but I decided against going more in depth. I've broken down things in sections. There's probably some mix and match:
Finance
What is the next crisis?
Talk about being a pessimist! Yet it is hard not to wonder what's next. We keep hearing talks of a bubble, signs of overvaluation, speculation in markets, etc. We don't know where and when something will happen, but we will try and anticipate nonetheless. And why not? There's so much going on, there's always something that can go wrong and you gotta be prepared. Whether we were right or not is something we can only know after the fact. When will this pandemic end? It seems to have no end in sight as I write this. We shall see.
Decentralized? Banks?
Ah, decentralization. The dream of a utopia that is decentralized, no corrupt power is in control, no one controls the money supply. I've spent a lot of time thinking and reading about this and have not arrived at an answer whether this is going to work as people say. If the costs of decentralized finance are too high and this is all just delusional dreaming by people who don't understand finance. Maybe I am biased because I earn my living working for a bank. Or it really all is a scam. Maybe there's a middle ground. I can go on and on about this, but questions remain. Banks or no banks, crypto is here to stay!
Euphoria/Gambling/Volatility
In the internet age with information/misinformation overload, are we going to see enhanced euphoria/gambling/volatility in markets. Gamestop and GME are just the beginning? Or the party will subside? I am personally sure that this will continue, there is no stopping humans from gambling away and having fun, yet there's a part of me that thinks maybe this is all just temporary.
Financial education
What I wouldn't give to have better financial education in schools. Or maybe not because I don't want it to be ruined by the boring methods of teaching that most schools employ. Setting aside schools, I do believe that financial education will reach more people in this decade than the previous ones, but there's just so many bad takes that exist on the internet I am not sure if people will be better off or worse. People don't know the basics of how things work at macro level and still shill out advice like they know it all. Let's see where this goes.
Bonds and Inflation
I work in the Bond space and love Bonds. But let's be real: Bond returns are too low, even negative. This leaves a lot of people wondering if owning bonds is worthwhile. My stance is they belong in a portfolio, not for returns but as a fallback in case of a crisis so you don't sell your equities/real estate/crypto to meet needs. Bonds are better than cash for reducing portfolio volatility, even if in real terms they may be losing value.
Then there's the big question of inflation. Like many things macro, I've put in a lot of time this year reading and thinking about inflation. Like many, I'm worried. What is the face of inflation going to look like? Who is right? Inflationists? Deflationists?
Index Funds
Matt Levine often talks about this question: "Should Index Funds be illegal?" I used to think it was a ridiculous question, but over time I've grown more and more scared of them. The critics have a point: When investors don't make choices and keep buying at any level, how absurd that may be, no skill or work involved, markets are going to get distorted. This point makes me scared. You have massive index inflows coming in every day, blindly, just buying and buying with no sense at all. Look, I get it. Index funds have a great track record. Active management has its cons. But if a big majority is indexing we may see some things never seen before. On the contrary, retail participation is at an all time high. I talked about gambling and euphoria above. Maybe my fear is misplaced.
Fitness
Obesity
I am not a fan of those people who promote being fat online. Fat acceptance is stupid. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying bully the fat people. But for some reason, I think obesity is here to stay. I don't know how bad it is going to get. It seems people keep putting aside their health again and again for worse things.
Influencers and Body Dysmorphia
Influencers. Where do I begin. It seems there's one group online that talks about being fat and how that is okay, then there's the polar opposite group with insane shredded physiques giving body dysmorphia to lifters. The normal group thinks they are doing something wrong and gives up. I think it is going to get worse. People don't realize how much gear these "influencers" take and how blessed they are with good looks. They don't realize that these influencers don't have a clue and are just making stuff up for whatever. Right now, it seems misinformation is winning.
That being said, even if the fitness information is subpar, atleast these social media celebs can inspire people to do something. Which would be better than nothing.
Records
World records are going to be broken. I am sure of it. We have to push the limits. But I am really curious to see what kind of fitness/sport records will be broken this decade.
Others
Privacy, Censorship, Fake News, Media and Propaganda
I've talked about this a bit above, but what will privacy look like heading now? Are we just going to hand over data everyday? Or more and more anons will pop up after getting tired of cancel culture? It is always a thin line between governments want information to police the state because of crime vs the same governments turning tyrannical and oppressing people. Are we going to censor everything that we don't like and/or we've grown too soft? Media, misinformation and propaganda- what is next after the damage this has done during covid?
Metaverse
One one hand, I can see the appeal of Metaverse. Interacting and doing random shit in virtual with strangers you've never met. Many can argue the modern social media landscape is kind of like a pre-metaverse. On the other hand, I am too old to get this. I like going out. But with nature getting demolished for concrete buildings, plastic trash everywhere, it is understandable that people may want to try this Metaverse type stuff. My fear is it doesn't really make anything better, it is just more of the same: running away from real problems and turning the Metaverse into something it shouldn't be. We'll see how it plays out.
Climate Change/Pollution
This is the biggest problem we face. Will we wake up to this? Or we just pollute our way into destroying everything? For some reason, I am pessimistic on this. I can write all day about this but let's keep it short: I don't see people taking responsibility for the environment and their own well being. Nature is getting annihilated at a faster rate than it can recover. We're all distracted. Speaking of distractions..
Drugs/Smoking/Drinking
For some reason, this has become okay amongst young people. Even "cool". I'll never understand this. There is nothing good or cool about doing these things. There is no argument, it is only negative and harmful. For own health and others. But I see my fellow young people waste away in these things. It is a shame to see. Will this be getting worse? Is this what we are becoming? Needing to get high to have a good time. Destroying our health on something absolutely useless?
Leaders
The world lacks good leadership in my opinion. Will we see good leaders rise out of this pandemic to stand up to the challenges? I hope so.
Education
Schools and colleges need to level up their ante. I am sure that online education is going to massively change the education landscape for the better. I am big believer in the fact that studying from youtube is better than studying in schools. My question is will they survive? They probably will, but it is going to look very different than it did. Atleast I hope. Most of the time I spent in classes in schools and colleges was wasted. Useless syllabus, clueless teachers, bad administration etc. On the other hand, there's lifelong friends you make in this phase and you experience things that online education cannot replicate.
Work
Remote work will be staying here. But I wonder how hybrid it will be? It is the same problem as the education question and one Jamie Dimon of JPM highlighted: What about the work culture? I don't know. I like WFH. Saves travel time and expenses which in turn allows me to get more work in. But not everything can be done remotely. We'll see how much it stays.
Space
Space stuff excites me. I hope the likes of Elon and Bezos will inspire many more people to get into space exploration and research. There is so much out there. It is fascinating. I hope we take new strides in this decade.
Some things I am certain about
Surprises
There will be lots of surprises that will catch us offguard. Hell, it is happening right now. We can't know everything, the world is complex and things break down. We're in for a ride especially with the internet now with everyone.
Handshakes and parties
Hanging out with friends and talking shit will never go away.
Tribalism
Tribalism has always existed. It will continue to exist. It is natural, sense or no sense. We're going to see more and more tribalism pop up. Thanks internet, we've amplified everything.
Good people doing good stuff
Hell yeah, there will always be people trying to do good stuff and making the world a better place for themselves and their families. This is what makes me excited. To wake up everyday and do my part, however little it may be.
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